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What the Red Sox can teach us about investing

You know the unseemly facts. Our beloved Sox were leading the AL East in late August. When they slipped to second, they had a nine game lead on Tampa Bay for the wildcard playoff slot. Finishing 7-21 over the season’s final month, the wildcard got away too. It still makes you a little sick, doesn’t it? What’s this unhappy tale…

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Tortoise 1, Hare 0

When the legendary “bond king” Bill Gross completely abandoned treasury bonds in his Pimco Total Return Fund earlier this year, he was applying decades of bond market experience and knowledge. Unfortunately, he guessed completely wrong on the health of the economy and price of US debt. Which is why his fund is trailing a low-cost, low-profile Vanguard index by an…

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The first investment

You know you have done something right as a parent when your child comes to you for advice on how to invest his or her own hard earned money.  You smile proudly when asked:  What should I buy? or How should I do it?  But how should you, the parent, respond?  A recent experience with a client and his son…

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Do they know something we don’t know?

What can we learn from fund flows – the movement of money in or out of securities? Do the recent outflows (see the Bloomberg article “Fund Outflows Top $75 Billion,”) signal a falling tide for equities, or an opportunity to buy?  Or neither? Let’s take a closer look.

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Cost is boss when it comes to performance

I often comment on how difficult it is to predict which securities will rise above their peers to deliver higher returns.  Frustrating as it may be, there’s just no systematic way to consistently identify winners and losers in advance.  However there is one data element, widely ignored by analysts and commentators, that has some predictive value: expense ratio.

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Is diversification dead?

Recent violent swings in the equity markets – more down than up – have spawned familiar rallying cries from every corner of the investing world, including “Diversification is Dead!” and “Buy and Hold is Obsolete!” Is it really time to throw out the fundamental tenets of passive investing? John Bogle says No.

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Where are the bond vigilantes?

At the department store when a product is perceived as overpriced or of questionable long-term value, sales typically decline. Shoppers vote with their feet and go to a different aisle or a different store. But that’s not happening in the US Treasury market. Even with record low yields and record high prices, bonds continue to move. Where are the bond…

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“Why Don’t I Own (More) Apple?”

Pretty much everybody wants to own Apple (AAPL). And why not?  AAPL is up 55 times since its March 2003 low of $7 and has greater cash reserves than the US government. Plenty of investors are lamenting that they didn’t take a bite of Apple years ago. But here’s the good news. If you are an indexer, chances are you…

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A profoundly positive story for the American economy

Now there’s a headline you haven’t seen recently.  It comes courtesy of Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Netscape and general partner of the venture capital firm, Andreessen-Horowitz.  What does Marc see that so many others don’t?  Find out in his very interesting article “Why Software is Eating the World.”

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