AI Comments Going Into Thanksgiving

AI Comments

After a dramatic week for the tech world, Sam Altman appears to be returning to OpenAI. OpenAI is the only company to deploy AI tools for the consumer market successfully, and they’ve been ahead of the innovative curve for at least a year, if not longer. The scarcity of companies like OpenAI forces investors to accept terms they typically would never consider. Microsoft’s investment did not come with a board seat; therefore, they had no governance controls to protect their investment. Many will rightly shake their heads that Microsoft did not secure a board seat, but just like with FTX’s blind fundraising rounds, the fastest-growing companies can set whatever terms they want.

This episode also highlighted the influence of two distinct movements, the Effective Altruists (EAs) and the Effective Accelerationists (e/acc). You will likely start seeing e/acc tags in online bios. I try not to pick sides, but in this case, I am biased towards innovating as fast as possible to unlock potential sooner rather than later. ChatGPT-4 is already governed by moral and ethical standards that prevent many illegal use cases.

To zoom out, AI (machine learning) and OpenAI growth are vital for continued economic growth. GDP growth depends on increased population, productivity and debt. Debt and population growth are reaching their limits, although the US benefits from immigration. Productivity growth through technology can continue for a long time, and cutting the legs off of that innovation is backward thinking. There’s a long history of people fighting against innovation. Another top-of-mind example, since I’m currently reading Fragile By Design, about the banking system, is that traditional banks lobbied against the rollout of ATMs, a convenience that would seem unthinkable today.

Weather Prediction

DeepMind published a new weather model that set a new record for accuracy. 

AI Market News

We’re starting to see the rollout of AI-related investment tools. One area that’s jumped forward is tracking news and information, especially when there are thousands of daily stories and any one of them could be relevant. The models work best when the topics are extensive and well covered, like Apple or ongoing world conflicts. The models fall short on niche topics because they have weak coverage. The example I’ll use in this case is the “space” investment theme. The next commercial opportunity in space involves manufacturing in low earth orbit. Silicon boules used in semiconductors have fewer quality control issues when manufactured in microgravity. The same is true for certain biotechnology assets. We’ll also likely put a data center in space to assist with connectivity.

However, when the AI scans the news, the models return with a focus on asteroid mining and growing tomatoes in space, because that’s funny and interesting and gets clicks. Regardless of the quality of the AI tools, if the news inputs are not good, which they often aren’t, then the models will never provide satisfactory results.

AI Voice Fraud PSA

There was a recent story about a lawyer who was nearly fooled by a scammer using AI to mimic his son’s voice. He received a call from his ‘son’ who said he had been in a car crash and to contact a particular lawyer to make a bail payment. The urgency of the situation overrode the lawyer’s critical thinking process, and it wasn’t until the lawyer arrived at a Bitcoin ATM that he realized he was being scammed. It’s critical that people tell their family members about this story. At Osbon Capital, we are constantly on high alert for fraud and to date, have successfully blocked each attempt. We’ve seen people hack into email addresses and impersonate them to ask for wires. The best way to combat scams is to be aware that scammers exist, slow down and double-check every detail to see that it makes sense. There is never real urgency when it comes to money transfers. Using the car crash scenario in this case was clever because it raised emotions and urgency. AI can impersonate a voice, but it can’t provide context or mimic a relationship.

CZ is out

This is not an AI story, but it is a significant development in the crypto world. CZ, Changpeng Zhao, founded Binance, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges that operates out of China. This week Binance was fined $4B by US regulators. CZ pleaded guilty to fraud and must step down from his CEO position. It was an open secret that Binance facilitated illegal activity. At this point, CZ was the final remaining crypto villain from the industry’s fall from grace that started in 2021. With CZ out of the picture, there are no major prosecutions left to pursue. This leaves the field open for a new set of players to build the next phase.

Happy Thanksgiving!